MVRV Ratio Bitcoin
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is the ratio of BTC's market capitalization to its realized value. It shows the average unrealized profit of all holders. It is a historically accurate indicator of cycle extremes.
MVRV Ratio Scale
How does MVRV Ratio help determine BTC tops and bottoms?
MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) divides Bitcoin's market capitalization by its realized capitalization. Realized capitalization is the sum of the prices at which each BTC was last purchased. If MVRV = 2, then the average Bitcoin holder is sitting on a 2x profit. At this level, selling pressure increases: rising profit-taking historically precedes corrections.
At the peak in November 2021, the MVRV reached 3.97—almost the entire market was sitting on massive unrealized profits. This is one of the reasons the pullback was so sharp: at the first sign of weakness, mass takeovers began. In November 2022, after the FTX crash, the MVRV dropped below 1—the realized price exceeded the market price. This is a historically rare event, coinciding with prime accumulation points.
The MVRV Z-Score is an improved version of the metric, normalizing the value by standard deviation. A Z-Score above 7 indicates the market is in the "red zone" of overheating. A Z-Score below 0 indicates the market is in the "green zone" of historical undervaluation. Both metrics are available in the table above.
History of MVRV at Cycle Extremes
| Date | MVRV | BTC price | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2017 | ~7.0 | $19,800 | Peak of the 2017 cycle |
| December 2018 | ~0.6 | $3,200 | Bear market bottom |
| November 2021 | ~3.97 | $69,000 | Peak of the 2021 cycle |
| November 2022 | ~0.76 | $15,700 | FTX collapse / bottom |