MVRV Ratio Bitcoin
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) - the ratio of market capitalization BTC to realized. Shows the average unrealized profit of all holders. A historically accurate indicator of cycle extremes.
Data is current · updated daily
Scale MVRV Ratio
How MVRV Ratio helps determine tops and bottoms BTC?
MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) divides market capitalization Bitcoin realized. Realized capitalization is the sum of the prices at which each BTC was purchased last time. If MVRV = 2, which means the average holder Bitcoin is sitting at 2x profit. At this level, selling pressure is increasing: rising profit-taking historically precedes corrections.
At the peak of November 2021 MVRV reached 3.97—almost the entire market was in huge unrealized profits. This is one of the reasons the pullback was so sharp: at the first sign of weakness, mass fixing began. In November 2022, after the crash FTX, MVRV fell below 1—the realized price exceeded the market price. This is a historically rare event, coinciding with the best accumulation points.
MVRV Z-Score is an improved version of the metric, normalizing the value by standard deviation. A Z-Score above 7 indicates the market is in the "red zone" of overheating. A Z-Score below 0 indicates the market is in the "green zone" of historical undervaluation. Both metrics are available in the table above.
Story MVRV at cyclic extremes
| Date | MVRV | Price BTC | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2017 | ~7.0 | $19,800 | Peak of the 2017 cycle |
| December 2018 | ~0.6 | $3,200 | Bear market bottom |
| November 2021 | ~3.97 | $69,000 | Peak of the 2021 cycle |
| November 2022 | ~0.76 | $15,700 | FTX collapse / bottom |
| January 2024 | ~1.85 | $44,000 | Launch Spot ETF |
| April 2024 | ~2.15 | $70,000 | The fourth halving |
| March 2025 | ~2.92 | $108,000 | Local peak of the ascending phase |
| April 2026 | ~2.45 | $134,000 | Current value |
Influence Spot ETF on MVRV in 2024–2026
After launch Spot Bitcoin ETF realized capitalization in January 2024 BTC began to grow abnormally quickly: every coin that came into ETF-custodian, fixed the new "cost price" at a high price. Over 2024–2025, the realized price increased from $24,000 to $54,800—almost 2.3 times. This structurally compresses the value. MVRV: even at $130K+ MVRV remains around 2.4–2.7, whereas in previous cycles with comparable price growth it easily exceeded 3.5.
Practical conclusion: thresholds of interpretation MVRV in the era ETF shifted downwards. What used to be a neutral zone (MVRV ~2.5), today already signals the approach to the distribution zone. Analysts Glassnode And CryptoQuant In 2025, adjusted models were published, where the “overheating” threshold was reduced from 3.5 to 2.8.
MVRV Z-Score - methodology
Z-Score = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Lifetime Standard Deviation of Market Cap. This is the normalized version. MVRV, which takes into account market variability over time.
Overheating zone: Z-Score above 7. Historical signals - December 2013, December 2017, March 2021. Historical undervaluation zone: Z-Score below 0. Signals - January 2015, March 2020, November 2022. Current Z-Score value is around 3.4 - neutral-overheated zone, without a clear signal.