Cycle indicators Bitcoin
Three classic metrics for determining cycle phase BTC: Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle Top, and 200WMA. All calculated using our real-time OHLCV data—no third-party APIs.
Mayer Multiple
Pi Cycle Top
200 Week MA
Three Classic Cycle Indicators
Cycles are fundamental nature BitcoinFour years pass between halvings, and during this period, the price typically goes through a bullish cycle (5-20x growth) and a bearish cycle (70-85% decline). Cyclical indicators help us understand which phase we're in: where the top is, where the bottom is, and where the accumulation zone is. Not for day trading—for long-term capital allocation.
These three metrics—Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, and 200WMA—use only historical price. BTC, without on-chain data. They are less accurate than NUPL or MVRV, but have a major advantage: you can calculate them yourself using our data, without relying on paid on-chain APIs.
Mayer Multiple - ratio to 200DMA
Mayer = Price / 200DMAA simple but powerful metric. Trevor Meyer noted that historically BTC Rarely spends time above 2.4x the 200-day moving average. Every time Mayer has broken 2.4x, a major correction or the start of a bearish cycle has occurred within months.
Zones: < 0.7 — глубокая просадка, исторически дно. 0.7–1.0 — фаза накопления. 1.0–1.5 — бычья фаза. 1.5–2.4 — перегрев. > 2.4 is a cyclical peak. Mayer won't move on news—it's slow (200-day averaging), so it's a macro signal, not a trading one.
Pi Cycle Top — Peak Detector
Pi Cycle: 111DMA crossover above 350DMA x 2. A tricky formula: 350/111 ≈ π (3.14). In history BTC This intersection occurred three times: April 2013, December 2017, April 2021. Each time - within 3 days of the absolute cycle peak, after which BTC fell by 70%+.
We currently display the 111DMA / (350DMA × 2) ratio on the page. When it reaches 1.0, that's the crossover signal. Above 0.95, the peak is approaching. 0.8–0.95 indicates a mature bullish phase, preparing for a fixation. Below 0.8, the peak is far away.
200 Week MA - Fundamental Floor
200WMA — the average price over 200 weeks (about 4 years, exactly one halving cycle). This is the historical "floor." BTCSince 2015, the price hasn't fallen below the 200WMA for more than a couple of months. Each such touch was an exceptional entry point.
The "deviation from 200WMA" metric shows where we are now. 0% is at the 200WMA itself (bearish bottom). +50% is normal. +100–200% is a bullish cycle. +300%+ is historical overheating, always ending in a correction.
How to use together
Accumulation phase signal
Mayer is below 1.0, the price is near or below 200WMA, and the Pi Cycle is far from 1.0. This is the cycle bottom. Most retail has capitulated, and market makers are quietly adding to their positions. This is a great long-term entry point.
Cycle peak signal
Mayer ≥ 2.0 + deviation from 200WMA > 250% + Pi Cycle > 0.95. This is the final phase of the cycle. Euphoria, news everywhere, retailers are buying aggressively. Time to take profits.
The "middle of the bull" signal
Mayer is around 1.3–1.7, deviation from 200WMA is 100–200%, Pi Cycle is ~0.7–0.85. This is a "healthy bullish" trend—you can hold positions, but add with caution. Counter-trend shorts usually lose.
Cycle start signal
Mayer broke through 1.0 from below, and the price consolidated above the 200WMA. The start of a new bullish cycle—statistically, 12–18 months of growth lie ahead. A good time for a gradual entry.
Related indicators
All cyclic indicators on the chart
IN SuperChart The BTC 4-Year Cycle preset displays cycle phases directly on the candlestick chart. You can see when Mayer broke through key levels and where historical reversal points have been.
Open in SuperChart