Cycle indicators Bitcoin
A set of on-chain metrics for determining the current phase of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. MVRV, NUPL, Puell Multiple, Pi Cycle Top, and other tools for analyzing cycle tops and bottoms.
NUPL
ОптимизмNet Unrealized Profit/Loss. Above 0.75 is the distribution zone, below 0 is capitulation.
Puell Multiple
НейтральноMiner daily revenue / 365-day moving average. Above 4 indicates overheating.
Pi Cycle Top
Не активенThe intersection of MA111 and 2×MA350. In 2017 and 2021, it indicated the peak with an accuracy of ±3 days.
Realized Price
On-chainThe average purchase price of all BTC. Serves as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
Thermocap Multiple
MinersMarket cap / total miner revenue. Above 32 is the cycle top zone.
Reserve Risk
TrustMeasures the confidence of long-term holders. Below 0.001 is low risk, above 0.01 is high risk.
How to read Bitcoin cycle indicators?
Bitcoin moves in predictable four-year cycles tied to the halving—the halving of miners' rewards. Each cycle consists of four phases: accumulation (after a bearish bottom), early bullish growth, euphoria and distribution, and a bear market. On-chain metrics help determine which phase the market is currently in.
Pi Cycle Top — one of the most accurate short-term top indicators. It signals when the 111-day moving average crosses twice the 350-day moving average. In April 2021, the signal appeared three days before the local peak at $64,000. In November 2021, it appeared a few days before the ATH at $69,000. Not a single false signal ever.
NUPL Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) shows the difference between the unrealized profit and loss of all holders as a percentage of market capitalization. When the value is above 0.75, the market historically enters a "euphoria" phase—the last phase before distribution. When the value is below 0, it signifies "capitulation": most holders are losing money, which traditionally coincides with the bottom.
Phases of Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
Accumulation (after the bottom)
MVRV < 1, NUPL отрицательный, резервы бирж снижаются. Медиа пишут «Bitcoin умер». Умные деньги тихо накапливают. Длительность: 6–18 месяцев.
Early bullish rally
MVRV 1–2, NUPL 0.25–0.5, Puell Multiple normal. The price breaks the realized price from below—this is the key level. Usually after the halving.
Euphoria and parabolic growth
MVRV > 3, NUPL > 0.6, Puell > 3. New highs every week, retail investors are entering en masse. Pi Cycle Top is approaching the signal.
Distribution and the Bear Market
MVRV falls from its peak, NUPL declines. A series of major corrections. Large holders sell to retail buyers. The cycle is about to repeat.