Cycle indicators Bitcoin

Cycles are fundamental nature BitcoinFour years pass between halvings, and during this period, the price typically goes through a bullish cycle (5-20x growth) and a bearish cycle (70-85% decline). Cyclical indicators help us understand which phase we're in: where the top is, where the bottom is, and where the accumulation zone is. Not for day trading—for long-term capital allocation.

These three metrics—Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle, and 200WMA—use only historical price. BTC, without on-chain data. They are less accurate than NUPL or MVRV, but have a major advantage: you can calculate them yourself using our data, without relying on paid on-chain APIs.

Mayer = Price / 200DMAA simple but powerful metric. Trevor Meyer noted that historically BTC Rarely spends time above 2.4x the 200-day moving average. Every time Mayer has broken 2.4x, a major correction or the start of a bearish cycle has occurred within months.

Zones: < 0.7 — глубокая просадка, исторически дно. 0.7–1.0 — фаза накопления. 1.0–1.5 — бычья фаза. 1.5–2.4 — перегрев. > 2.4 is a cyclical peak. Mayer won't move on news—it's slow (200-day averaging), so it's a macro signal, not a trading one.

Pi Cycle: 111DMA crossover above 350DMA x 2. A tricky formula: 350/111 ≈ π (3.14). In history BTC This intersection occurred three times: April 2013, December 2017, April 2021. Each time - within 3 days of the absolute cycle peak, after which BTC fell by 70%+.

We currently display the 111DMA / (350DMA × 2) ratio on the page. When it reaches 1.0, that's the crossover signal. Above 0.95, the peak is approaching. 0.8–0.95 indicates a mature bullish phase, preparing for a fixation. Below 0.8, the peak is far away.

200WMA — the average price over 200 weeks (about 4 years, exactly one halving cycle). This is the historical "floor." BTCSince 2015, the price hasn't fallen below the 200WMA for more than a couple of months. Each such touch was an exceptional entry point.

The "deviation from 200WMA" metric shows where we are now. 0% is at the 200WMA itself (bearish bottom). +50% is normal. +100–200% is a bullish cycle. +300%+ is historical overheating, always ending in a correction.

In addition to moving average indicators, the cycle phase is assessed using long-term price models. These are mathematical frameworks for "fair" value. BTC: They do not predict a specific price, but they show where the current price is relative to the historical trajectory - at the floor, in the middle, or in the overheating zone.

Rainbow Chart — logarithmic regression of the entire price history BTC, broken down into nine color bars: from purple "is it real?" (buy) to dark red "fire sale" (sell). In March 2020 Bitcoin It fell into the dark blue zone around $3,800, and by November 2021 it had entered the red at $67,000—a 1,660% gain between these extremes.

Stock-to-Flow — Plan B model (2019): compares BTC With gold, the higher the ratio of accumulated reserves to annual emission, the higher the price should be. The model accurately described the 2020–2021 cycle, but in 2022–2023, the price deviated significantly from the forecast. S2F are used as a framework for scarcity rather than as an accurate forecast.

Power Law — power law of growth: on a logarithmic scale, the price BTC Since 2010, it has been moving along a straight line (research by Giovanni Santostasi). The lower boundary of the corridor has never been broken at the close of a month over the past 15 years—it is used as a long-term estimate of the price "floor."