BitcoinValue Map
On-chain value map BTC: Five bars from Heavy Undervalued to Heavy Overvalued show whether it's cheap or expensive. Bitcoin Right now. The bars are constructed from blockchain data—Realized Cap and Coin Days Destroyed—and are recalculated daily.
Value Map: the whole story Bitcoin in five lanes
How to read Value Map
Value Map answers one question: how much Bitcoin What's the "fair" price? And how far the current price deviates from that fairness. Unlike a price chart, the map isn't based on market sentiment, but on blockchain data itself: the price at which coins actually changed hands (Realized Cap) and how long holders haven't touched them (Coin Days Destroyed).
The logic is simple. When the market price falls deep below fair value, these have historically been capitulation zones: late 2018, March 2020, November 2022. When the price rises to the upper bands, these are euphoric zones, where the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 reached their peaks. The map doesn't provide "buy now" signals—it shows what valuation phase the market is in.
Five stripes of the map
Heavy Undervalued
The lower boundary of the chart, the "floor" of the price. The price has touched this line only a handful of times throughout history—at the bottoms of the bear markets of 2015, 2018, and 2022. Psychologically, these are the worst times to buy—and historically, the best.
Undervalued
The price is below fair value. This is typical of the late stages of a bear market and the accumulation phase, when long-term money is gaining ground while retail has not yet returned.
Fair Value
Middle of the map: the price matches the on-chain valuation. The market spends a significant portion of its time here—this is the "normal" state between the extremes of the cycle.
Overvalued
The price is significantly above fair value. The bull market is in full swing: the trend could continue for months, but the risk/reward ratio for new purchases is already worsening.
Heavy Overvalued
Upper boundary of the chart. April 2013, December 2017, April 2021—each time the price reached this band, it coincided with a cycle top, followed by a correction of tens of percent. An important caveat: with each cycle, the market becomes larger and calmer, and the top patterns become more conservative—the price reached the November 2021 top short of the upper band.
How the map is constructed
At the core Value Map — two independent on-chain models. The bottom model estimates the lower bound of the price using the Realized Cap—the total value of all coins based on their last price movement on the blockchain. This is the "market cost": how much holders collectively paid for their coins. BTCThe topping model estimates the upper bound using Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric that rises as older coins move and experienced holders take profits.
Between the floor and ceiling, the map divides the range into equal logarithmic steps, creating intermediate bands labeled Undervalued, Fair Value, and Overvalued. Fair Value is the geometric midpoint between the two models. The logarithmic scale is crucial here: Bitcoin has grown from cents to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and only the log scale makes all cycles comparable on one chart.
All calculations are performed on our side daily, using open on-chain network data. BitcoinThe stripes are up to date—without delays or abbreviated history.
How Value Map differs from Rainbow Chart and Stock-to-Flow
The Rainbow Chart is simply a colored logarithmic regression over time: it knows nothing but the date. Stock-to-Flow ties the price to the supply deficit and systematically overestimates the forecast after 2021. Value Map The map is structured differently: the bands are recalculated based on the actual behavior of holders on the blockchain. If the market is overheated, the Realized Cap lags behind the price, and the map reflects this; if old coins are moving en masse to exchanges, the Coin Days Destroyed increases, and the upper bands approach.
Therefore, the chart should be read together with cyclical indicators: Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle Top and 200WMA provide a view from the price, Value Map — from the blockchain. When both groups show extreme values simultaneously, the signal is significantly stronger.
Frequently asked questions
Is it possible? Value Map catch the bottom or the top?
There's no exact date. The map shows valuation zones, not reversal points: the price can remain in the Overvalued band for months in a bull market. Another approach is to use the outer bands as a filter for long-term decisions: increase your position in the lower zones and reduce risk in the upper ones.
Why do the stripes move instead of staying in place?
Because the blockchain itself is in flux. Every transaction changes the Realized Cap and Coin Days Destroyed—the "market value" increases as coins change hands at higher prices. The stripes are recalculated daily and reflect the current state of the network, not a fixed formula.
What does Fair Value mean and why is the price so rarely equal to it?
Fair Value is the geometric midpoint between the on-chain floor and ceiling. The market almost never settles exactly at this midpoint: Bitcoin It lives in cycles of overshoot and undershoot. That's why the map is useful—it shows the amplitude of the current deviation from equilibrium.
Does it work? Value Map for altcoins?
No. The map is based on on-chain network metrics. Bitcoin — Realized Cap and Coin Days Destroyed are calculated using the UTXO model, which most altcoins don't. To evaluate altcoins, use screeners and derivative metrics such as open interest, funding, and liquidations.